The year is 2004 and John Kerry is the Democratic party nominee to face it out with President George W. Bush.
Democrats with presidential ambitions have to put them on hold and get behind their candidate.
Among them is a young, relatively unknown senator by the name Barack Obama.
The odds are not very good for Kerry, and though no one admits, they all know that the real battle will be in 2008 when the incumbent would be leaving office.
The ‘skinny guy with a funny name’ gets invited to speak at the Democratic National Convention, and the rest is history.
Here in Kenya, people have started asking whether Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho is following the same playbook.
In recent weeks, he has established himself as the de facto number two in ODM, and Raila’s biggest defender.
His influence is growing rapidly as was witnessed last weekend when he was able to attract a crowd very few politicians can manage in Nairobi.
His host, Evans Kidero, was relegated to a ‘flower girl’.
In his speech, Joho implied that he will be Ruto’s rival in 2022, telling him to get ready for a fight.
There’s only one way for the Mombasa governor to be a major presidential candidate in 2022. Raila must lose in 2017.
We know in Kenya one term presidency promises are not honored, and Joho would not reasonably expect Raila to honor the same should he be elected president next year.
Therefore, for Joho to be talking about facing Ruto in 2022, it implies that he either sees no possibility of Raila winning in 2017, or hopes that he loses.
It’s more like Obama in 2004, but instead of hoping secretly, he said it before thousands of people.
What do you think?
Source: Nairobi Wire